Hoge, Tom vs Blanchet, Chandler prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Blanchet, Chandler 53 - Hoge, Tom 49. Hoge, Tom is favored with a 59.1% win probability. The spread is -0.19.
Blanchet, Chandler
-0.06
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Hoge, Tom
-0.25
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Blanchet, ChandlerHoge, Tom
-122
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hoge, Tom
424956
Blanchet, Chandler
465360
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
77°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Hoge, Tom
Strokes Gained
-0.25/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.427 SG adj
Expected Finish
49th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Hoge, Tom
-0.25 SG
EF 49th
Skill Gap
-0.19 SG/round
tight edge for Blanchet, Chandler
Blanchet, Chandler
-0.06 SG
EF 53th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.1%
Books Say
54.9%
Edge
+7.6%
Hoge, Tom vs Blanchet, Chandler: Model gives Hoge, Tom 59.1% win probability vs 55.0% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.19 SG/round. Expected finish: 49.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hoge, Tom 59.1%
+7.6 pts
Spread
-0.2
+7.6 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →