Hoge, Tom vs Campbell, Brian prediction for April 29, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Campbell, Brian 58 - Hoge, Tom 47. Hoge, Tom is favored with a 82.0% win probability. The spread is 0.48.
Campbell, Brian
-0.69
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Cadillac Championship
Hoge, Tom
-0.21
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Campbell, BrianHoge, Tom
-228
Best Odds
+18.0%
Edge
2.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hoge, Tom
404754
Campbell, Brian
515865
Tournament Context
Event
Cadillac Championship
Course
Trump National Doral (Blue Monster)
Field
72 players
Player Profile — Hoge, Tom
Strokes Gained
-0.21/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.137 SG adj
Expected Finish
47th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Hoge, Tom
-0.21 SG
EF 47th
Skill Gap
+0.48 SG/round
meaningful edge for Hoge, Tom
Campbell, Brian
-0.69 SG
EF 58th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
82.0%
Books Say
69.5%
Edge
+18.0%
Hoge, Tom vs Campbell, Brian: Model gives Hoge, Tom 82.0% win probability vs 69.5% implied (+18.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.48 SG/round. Expected finish: 47.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hoge, Tom 82.0%
+18.0 pts
Spread
+0.5
+18.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →