Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Bridgeman, Jacob prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Bridgeman, Jacob 46 - Hojgaard, Nicolai 39. Hojgaard, Nicolai is favored with a 64.6% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Bridgeman, Jacob
+1.06
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Bridgeman, JacobHojgaard, Nicolai
-134
Best Odds
+12.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hojgaard, Nicolai
323946
Bridgeman, Jacob
394653
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
9 mph
Temp
72°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Nicolai
Strokes Gained
+1.03/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.314 SG adj
Expected Finish
39th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03 SG
EF 39th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Bridgeman, Jacob
+1.06 SG
EF 46th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
64.6%
Books Say
57.3%
Edge
+12.9%
Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Bridgeman, Jacob: Model gives Hojgaard, Nicolai 64.6% win probability vs 57.3% implied (+12.9% edge). Expected finish: 39.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Nicolai 64.6%
+12.9 pts
Spread
-0.0
+12.9 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →