Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Koepka, Brooks prediction for June 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Koepka, Brooks 82 - Hojgaard, Nicolai 66. Hojgaard, Nicolai is favored with a 60.8% win probability. The spread is 0.48.
Koepka, Brooks
+0.67
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.12
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Koepka, BrooksHojgaard, Nicolai
-125
Best Odds
+9.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hojgaard, Nicolai
596673
Koepka, Brooks
758289
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Nicolai
Strokes Gained
+1.12/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.055 SG adj
Expected Finish
66th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.12 SG
EF 66th
Skill Gap
+0.48 SG/round
meaningful edge for Hojgaard, Nicolai
Koepka, Brooks
+0.67 SG
EF 82th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.8%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+9.5%
Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Koepka, Brooks: Model gives Hojgaard, Nicolai 60.8% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+9.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.48 SG/round. Expected finish: 66.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Nicolai 60.8%
+9.5 pts
Spread
+0.5
+9.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →