Hojgaard, Nicolai vs MacIntyre, Robert prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MacIntyre, Robert 79 - Hojgaard, Nicolai 67. Hojgaard, Nicolai is favored with a 53.9% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.13
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.12
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
MacIntyre, RobertHojgaard, Nicolai
-101
Best Odds
+6.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hojgaard, Nicolai
606774
MacIntyre, Robert
727986
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Nicolai
Strokes Gained
+1.12/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.055 SG adj
Expected Finish
67th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.12 SG
EF 67th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.13 SG
EF 79th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
53.9%
Books Say
50.2%
Edge
+6.7%
Hojgaard, Nicolai vs MacIntyre, Robert: Model gives Hojgaard, Nicolai 53.9% win probability vs 50.2% implied (+7.2% edge). Expected finish: 67. AI: weather/conditions favorable; poor course history.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Nicolai 53.9%
+6.7 pts
Spread
+0.1
+6.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →