Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Straka, Sepp prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Straka, Sepp 40 - Hojgaard, Nicolai 87. Hojgaard, Nicolai is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The spread is 0.14.
Straka, Sepp
+0.73
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+0.97
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Straka, SeppHojgaard, Nicolai
-105
Best Odds
+18.9%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hojgaard, Nicolai
808794
Straka, Sepp
334047
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Nicolai
Strokes Gained
+0.97/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.096 SG adj
Expected Finish
87th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+0.97 SG
EF 87th
Skill Gap
+0.14 SG/round
tight edge for Hojgaard, Nicolai
Straka, Sepp
+0.73 SG
EF 40th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.9%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+18.9%
Hojgaard, Nicolai vs Straka, Sepp: Model gives Hojgaard, Nicolai 60.9% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+18.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.14 SG/round. Expected finish: 87.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Nicolai 60.9%
+18.9 pts
Spread
+0.1
+18.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →