Hojgaard, Rasmus vs Clark, Wyndham prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Clark, Wyndham 0 - Hojgaard, Rasmus 77. Hojgaard, Rasmus is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The spread is -0.05.
Clark, Wyndham
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Clark, WyndhamHojgaard, Rasmus
-105
Best Odds
+7.0%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Rasmus
Strokes Gained
+0.47/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.180 SG adj
Expected Finish
77th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47 SG
EF 77th
Skill Gap
-0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Clark, Wyndham
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.8%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+7.0%
Hojgaard, Rasmus vs Clark, Wyndham: Model gives Hojgaard, Rasmus 54.8% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+7.0% edge). Expected finish: 77.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Hojgaard has modest skill edge (+0.47 SG total) and course fit (+0.18 SG), but expected finishes are nearly identical (76 vs 76). 8.4% edge on -102 is thin and fairly priced. Skip.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Hojgaard +0.47 (decent skill) vs Clark +0.52 (slightly better)
- Course fit: Hojgaard +0.18 vs Clark +0.146 (Hojgaard slightly better)
- Expected finish: Hojgaard 76 vs Clark 76 (tied)
- Odds: -102 (implied 50.5% vs model 54.7% = +4.2% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.051 (Clark is slightly better in base)
Risk Factors
- Expected finishes are TIED (76 vs 76); this is pure variance
- Clark is actually slightly better in raw skill (+0.52 vs +0.47 SG); Hojgaard's course fit barely compensates
- 8.4% edge is thin and fairly priced at -102
MARGINAL EDGETIED EFSLIGHTLY WORSE SKILLSKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Rasmus 54.8%
+7.0 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →