Hojgaard, Rasmus vs Clark, Wyndham prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Clark, Wyndham 0 - Hojgaard, Rasmus 78. Hojgaard, Rasmus is favored with a 54.7% win probability. The spread is -0.05.
Clark, Wyndham
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Clark, WyndhamHojgaard, Rasmus
-105
Best Odds
+6.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hojgaard, Rasmus
Strokes Gained
+0.47/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.180 SG adj
Expected Finish
78th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hojgaard, Rasmus
+0.47 SG
EF 78th
Skill Gap
-0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Clark, Wyndham
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.7%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+6.8%
Hojgaard, Rasmus vs Clark, Wyndham: Model gives Hojgaard, Rasmus 54.7% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+6.8% edge). Expected finish: 78.
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL +0RED ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Model 54.8% vs market 51.22% creates only +7.0% edge; -0.051 skill gap, mid-field EF (76.8 both), -105 odds, and modest differentiators lack conviction.
Key Factors
- Skill gap: -0.051 (near-parity)
- Course fit: +0.180 (Hojgaard slight advantage)
- SG total: +0.472 (Hojgaard advantage)
- EF: 76.8 both (parity)
- Edge: +7.0% at -105 BetOnline (modest)
Risk Factors
- Skill parity (-0.051) near-zero
- EF parity (76.8 both) suggests coin-flip
- Negative odds (-105) unfavorable
SKILL PARITYEF PARITYMODEST EDGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hojgaard, Rasmus 54.7%
+6.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →