Homa, Max vs Fitzpatrick, Alex prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Alex 39 - Homa, Max 24. Homa, Max is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Homa, Max
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, AlexHoma, Max
+110
Best Odds
+29.4%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Homa, Max
172431
Fitzpatrick, Alex
323946
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Homa, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.45/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.403 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Homa, Max
+0.45 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59 SG
EF 39th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.6%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+29.4%
Homa, Max vs Fitzpatrick, Alex: Model gives Homa, Max 61.6% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+29.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Homa 61.0% h2h vs 50.5% implied = +20.8% edge; Homa's exceptional +1.40 course fit (best in field) overcomes -0.15 SG skill disadvantage; expected finish 24.3 supports h2h edge.
Key Factors
- Homa course fit +1.403 SG (TOP-3 in field, second only to McIlroy's +2.54)
- Homa SG +0.45 total (mid-tier) but course fit (+1.403) elevates him significantly
- Expected finish 24.3 (solid mid-pack) provides h2h foundation
- Pinnacle -102 (50.5% implied) vs 61.0% model = +20.8% edge
Risk Factors
- Fitzpatrick's profile weak in top-40 cutoff; likely stronger player than data suggests
- Homa's SG-app only +0.07 (weak) — relies on course fit; vulnerable to course condition changes
- Skill deficit (-0.15 SG) creates baseline headwind that only course fit can overcome
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Homa, Max 61.6%
+29.4 pts
Spread
-0.1
+29.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →