Homa, Max vs Fitzpatrick, Alex prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Alex 39 - Homa, Max 24. Homa, Max is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Homa, Max
+0.45
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, AlexHoma, Max
+110
Best Odds
+29.4%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Homa, Max
172431
Fitzpatrick, Alex
323946
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Homa, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.45/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.403 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Homa, Max
+0.45 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Fitzpatrick, Alex
Fitzpatrick, Alex
+0.59 SG
EF 39th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.6%
Books Say
47.6%
Edge
+29.4%
Homa, Max vs Fitzpatrick, Alex: Model gives Homa, Max 61.6% win probability vs 47.6% implied (+29.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Homa, Max 61.6%
+29.4 pts
Spread
-0.1
+29.4 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →