Hovland, Viktor vs Gotterup, Chris prediction for May 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Gotterup, Chris 81 - Hovland, Viktor 52. Hovland, Viktor is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is -0.05.
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Gotterup, ChrisHovland, Viktor
-108
Best Odds
+7.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hovland, Viktor
455259
Gotterup, Chris
748188
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hovland, Viktor
Strokes Gained
+1.15/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.270 SG adj
Expected Finish
52th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15 SG
EF 52th
Skill Gap
-0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Gotterup, Chris
+1.21 SG
EF 81th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.0%
Books Say
51.9%
Edge
+7.8%
Hovland, Viktor vs Gotterup, Chris: Model gives Hovland, Viktor 56.0% win probability vs 51.9% implied (+7.8% edge). Expected finish: 52.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hovland, Viktor 56.0%
+7.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →