Hovland, Viktor vs Hatton, Tyrrell prediction for May 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hatton, Tyrrell 99 - Hovland, Viktor 52. Hovland, Viktor is favored with a 68.2% win probability. The spread is 0.3.
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hatton, TyrrellHovland, Viktor
-105
Best Odds
+33.1%
Edge
2.0u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hovland, Viktor
455259
Hatton, Tyrrell
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hovland, Viktor
Strokes Gained
+1.15/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.270 SG adj
Expected Finish
52th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15 SG
EF 52th
Skill Gap
+0.30 SG/round
tight edge for Hovland, Viktor
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86 SG
EF 99th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
68.2%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+33.1%
Hovland, Viktor vs Hatton, Tyrrell: Model gives Hovland, Viktor 68.2% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+33.1% edge). Skill advantage: +0.31 SG/round. Expected finish: 52.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hovland, Viktor 68.2%
+33.1 pts
Spread
+0.3
+33.1 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →