Hovland, Viktor vs Kim, Si Woo prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kim, Si Woo 80 - Hovland, Viktor 52. Hovland, Viktor is favored with a 60.5% win probability. The spread is -0.16.
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kim, Si WooHovland, Viktor
+100
Best Odds
+20.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hovland, Viktor
455259
Kim, Si Woo
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Hovland, Viktor
Strokes Gained
+1.15/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.270 SG adj
Expected Finish
52th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Hovland, Viktor
+1.15 SG
EF 52th
Skill Gap
-0.16 SG/round
tight edge for Kim, Si Woo
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
60.5%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+20.9%
Hovland, Viktor vs Kim, Si Woo: Model gives Hovland, Viktor 60.5% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+20.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 52.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hovland, Viktor 60.5%
+20.9 pts
Spread
-0.2
+20.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →