PGA Tour Golf

Hovland, Viktor vs Lowry, Shane Prediction

June 9, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Hovland, Viktor vs Lowry, Shane prediction for June 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lowry, Shane 81 - Hovland, Viktor 69. Hovland, Viktor is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The spread is -0.09.

Lowry, Shane
+1.18
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Hovland, Viktor
+1.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
46.4%
53.6%
Lowry, ShaneHovland, Viktor
-104
Best Odds
+5.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
FINALLowry, Shane (T6) def Hovland, Viktor (T53)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Hovland, Viktor
626976
Lowry, Shane
748188

Tournament Context

Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players

Player Profile — Hovland, Viktor

Strokes Gained
+1.10/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.000 SG adj
Expected Finish
69th / 147

Matchup Analysis

Hovland, Viktor
+1.10 SG
EF 69th
Skill Gap
-0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Lowry, Shane
+1.18 SG
EF 81th · Tour Elite

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
53.6%
Books Say
51.0%
Edge
+5.1%

Hovland, Viktor vs Lowry, Shane: Model gives Hovland, Viktor 53.6% win probability vs 51.0% implied (+5.1% edge). Expected finish: 69.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Hovland, Viktor 53.6%
+5.1 pts
Spread
-0.1
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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