Hughes, Mackenzie vs Finau, Tony prediction for May 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 92 - Hughes, Mackenzie 93. Hughes, Mackenzie is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The spread is 0.05.
Finau, Tony
+0.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.07
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Finau, TonyHughes, Mackenzie
-104
Best Odds
+14.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hughes, Mackenzie
8693100
Finau, Tony
859299
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Hughes, Mackenzie
Strokes Gained
+0.07/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.010 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.07 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
+0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Finau, Tony
+0.02 SG
EF 92th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.3%
Books Say
51.0%
Edge
+14.3%
Hughes, Mackenzie vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Hughes, Mackenzie 58.3% win probability vs 51.0% implied (+14.3% edge). Expected finish: 93.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hughes, Mackenzie 58.3%
+14.3 pts
Spread
+0.1
+14.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →