Hughes, Mackenzie vs Simpson, Webb prediction for May 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Simpson, Webb 46 - Hughes, Mackenzie 34. Hughes, Mackenzie is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The spread is 0.24.
Simpson, Webb
-0.15
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.09
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Simpson, WebbHughes, Mackenzie
-123
Best Odds
+11.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Hughes, Mackenzie
273441
Simpson, Webb
394653
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Hughes, Mackenzie
Strokes Gained
+0.09/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.026 SG adj
Expected Finish
34th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Hughes, Mackenzie
+0.09 SG
EF 34th
Skill Gap
+0.24 SG/round
tight edge for Hughes, Mackenzie
Simpson, Webb
-0.15 SG
EF 46th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.4%
Books Say
55.2%
Edge
+11.3%
Hughes, Mackenzie vs Simpson, Webb: Model gives Hughes, Mackenzie 61.4% win probability vs 55.2% implied (+11.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.24 SG/round. Expected finish: 34.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Hughes, Mackenzie 61.4%
+11.3 pts
Spread
+0.2
+11.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →