Im, Sungjae vs Finau, Tony prediction for May 2, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Finau, Tony 61 - Im, Sungjae 32. Im, Sungjae is favored with a 75.0% win probability. The spread is 0.09.
Finau, Tony
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Im, Sungjae
+0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Finau, TonyIm, Sungjae
-145
Best Odds
+26.8%
Edge
2.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Im, Sungjae
253239
Finau, Tony
546168
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Im, Sungjae
Strokes Gained
+0.04/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+1.129 SG adj
Expected Finish
32th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Im, Sungjae
+0.04 SG
EF 32th
Skill Gap
+0.09 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Finau, Tony
-0.04 SG
EF 61th · Below Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
75.0%
Books Say
59.2%
Edge
+26.8%
Im, Sungjae vs Finau, Tony: Model gives Im, Sungjae 75.0% win probability vs 59.2% implied (+26.8% edge). Expected finish: 32.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Im, Sungjae 75.0%
+26.8 pts
Spread
+0.1
+26.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →