Jaeger, Stephan vs Li, Haotong prediction for May 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Li, Haotong 84 - Jaeger, Stephan 86. Jaeger, Stephan is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Li, Haotong
+0.22
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Li, HaotongJaeger, Stephan
-107
Best Odds
+8.2%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Jaeger, Stephan
798693
Li, Haotong
778491
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Jaeger, Stephan
Strokes Gained
+0.23/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.075 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Li, Haotong
+0.22 SG
EF 84th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.9%
Books Say
51.7%
Edge
+8.2%
Jaeger, Stephan vs Li, Haotong: Model gives Jaeger, Stephan 55.9% win probability vs 51.7% implied (+8.2% edge). Expected finish: 86.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaeger, Stephan 55.9%
+8.2 pts
Spread
+0.0
+8.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →