Jaeger, Stephan vs Li, Haotong prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Li, Haotong 80 - Jaeger, Stephan 86. Jaeger, Stephan is favored with a 56.2% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Li, Haotong
+0.20
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Li, HaotongJaeger, Stephan
-107
Best Odds
+8.7%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Jaeger, Stephan
798693
Li, Haotong
738087
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Jaeger, Stephan
Strokes Gained
+0.23/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.075 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.23 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Li, Haotong
+0.20 SG
EF 80th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.2%
Books Say
51.7%
Edge
+8.7%
Jaeger, Stephan vs Li, Haotong: Model gives Jaeger, Stephan 56.2% win probability vs 51.7% implied (+8.7% edge). Expected finish: 86.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEANYELLOW ZONE0.5% WR (n=380)
Jaeger has modest skill edge (+0.231 SG total) and course fit (+0.075 SG). Expected finishes are nearly identical (86 vs 84), and 8.3% edge on -108 is fairly priced and marginal. Skip.
Key Factors
- SG Total: Jaeger +0.23 vs Li +0.22 (essentially equal)
- Course fit: Jaeger +0.075 vs Li +0.156 (Li is actually better at course fit)
- Expected finish: Jaeger 86 vs Li 84 (2-place gap, noise)
- Odds: -108 (implied 51.9% vs model 56.3% = +4.3% edge)
- Skill differential: +0.01 (essentially identical)
Risk Factors
- Expected finishes are nearly tied (86 vs 84), within variance range
- Li is actually slightly better at course fit (+0.156 vs +0.075), offsetting Jaeger's minimal skill edge
- 8.3% edge is thin and fairly priced at -108
MARGINAL EDGENEARLY IDENTICALOPPOSITE FIT ADVANTAGESKIP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaeger, Stephan 56.2%
+8.7 pts
Spread
+0.0
+8.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →