Jaeger, Stephan vs Olesen, Thorbjorn prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Olesen, Thorbjorn 0 - Jaeger, Stephan 77. Jaeger, Stephan is favored with a 56.0% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.41
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Olesen, ThorbjornJaeger, Stephan
-102
Best Odds
+10.8%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — Jaeger, Stephan
Strokes Gained
+0.41/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.046 SG adj
Expected Finish
77th / 132
Matchup Analysis
Jaeger, Stephan
+0.41 SG
EF 77th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Olesen, Thorbjorn
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.0%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+10.8%
Jaeger, Stephan vs Olesen, Thorbjorn: Model gives Jaeger, Stephan 56.0% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+10.8% edge). Expected finish: 77.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Jaeger, Stephan 56.0%
+10.8 pts
Spread
-0.0
+10.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →