Johnson, Dustin vs Day, Jason prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Day, Jason 46 - Johnson, Dustin 99. Johnson, Dustin is favored with a 61.6% win probability. The spread is -0.1.
Day, Jason
+0.64
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Johnson, Dustin
+0.56
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Day, JasonJohnson, Dustin
-102
Best Odds
+22.0%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Johnson, Dustin
9299106
Day, Jason
394653
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Johnson, Dustin
Strokes Gained
+0.56/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.109 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Johnson, Dustin
+0.56 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
-0.10 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Day, Jason
+0.64 SG
EF 46th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.6%
Books Say
50.5%
Edge
+22.0%
Johnson, Dustin vs Day, Jason: Model gives Johnson, Dustin 61.6% win probability vs 50.5% implied (+22.0% edge). Expected finish: 99.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Johnson, Dustin 61.6%
+22.0 pts
Spread
-0.1
+22.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →