Johnson, Dustin vs Horschel, Billy prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Horschel, Billy 106 - Johnson, Dustin 99. Johnson, Dustin is favored with a 63.5% win probability. The spread is 0.15.
Horschel, Billy
+0.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Johnson, Dustin
+0.18
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Horschel, BillyJohnson, Dustin
-116
Best Odds
+18.3%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Johnson, Dustin
9299106
Horschel, Billy
99106113
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Johnson, Dustin
Strokes Gained
+0.18/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.611 SG adj
Expected Finish
99th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Johnson, Dustin
+0.18 SG
EF 99th
Skill Gap
+0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Johnson, Dustin
Horschel, Billy
+0.03 SG
EF 106th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.5%
Books Say
53.7%
Edge
+18.3%
Johnson, Dustin vs Horschel, Billy: Model gives Johnson, Dustin 63.5% win probability vs 53.7% implied (+18.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 99.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Johnson, Dustin 63.5%
+18.3 pts
Spread
+0.1
+18.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →