PGA Tour Golf

Keefer, Johnny vs Hubbard, Mark Prediction

May 28, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Keefer, Johnny vs Hubbard, Mark prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hubbard, Mark 50 - Keefer, Johnny 86. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is 0.12.

Hubbard, Mark
-0.04
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
Keefer, Johnny
+0.08
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
40.3%
59.7%
Hubbard, MarkKeefer, Johnny
-105
Best Odds
+16.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
FINALHubbard, Mark (T28) def Keefer, Johnny (T54)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Keefer, Johnny
798693
Hubbard, Mark
435057

Tournament Context

Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)

Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny

Strokes Gained
+0.08/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.132 SG adj
Expected Finish
86th / 132

Matchup Analysis

Keefer, Johnny
+0.08 SG
EF 86th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Keefer, Johnny
Hubbard, Mark
-0.04 SG
EF 50th · Below Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+16.5%

Keefer, Johnny vs Hubbard, Mark: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 59.7% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+16.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 86.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 59.7%
+16.5 pts
Spread
+0.1
+16.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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