Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus prediction for April 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Power, Seamus 102 - Keefer, Johnny 94. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 61.4% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Power, Seamus
+0.02
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Power, SeamusKeefer, Johnny
-105
Best Odds
+19.8%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Keefer, Johnny
8794101
Power, Seamus
95102109
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
-0.14/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.157 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Power, Seamus
Power, Seamus
+0.02 SG
EF 102th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.4%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+19.8%
Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 61.4% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+19.8% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 61.4%
+19.8 pts
Spread
-0.1
+19.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →