Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus prediction for May 20, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Power, Seamus 88 - Keefer, Johnny 94. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 61.5% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Power, Seamus
+0.12
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Power, SeamusKeefer, Johnny
-105
Best Odds
+20.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Keefer, Johnny
8794101
Power, Seamus
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
81°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
-0.14/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.157 SG adj
Expected Finish
94th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14 SG
EF 94th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Power, Seamus
Power, Seamus
+0.12 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.5%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+20.2%
Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 61.5% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+20.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 94.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Keefer is course fit specialist (+0.157 SG) playing at TPC Craig Ranch; Power struggles here. 20.7% edge on -105 odds is solid, though negative overall SG gap is a structural red flag worth monitoring.
Key Factors
- Course fit: Keefer +0.157 SG (solid TPC Craig Ranch fit; Power is baseline)
- SG Total: -0.136 (Keefer is SLIGHTLY WORSE overall, but course fit flips the matchup)
- Expected finish: Keefer 94 vs Power 94+ (very tight, variance-driven)
- Odds: -105 (implied 51.2% vs model 61.8% = +10.6% edge)
- Skill differential: -0.151 (nominal disadvantage to Keefer offset by course setup)
Risk Factors
- Keefer's overall SG Total is NEGATIVE (-0.136)—he's below-field-average in raw skill but benefits from course fit
- Expected finish spread is minimal (94 vs 94+); outcome highly variance-dependent
- If course conditions tighten or wind dies down, Power's raw skill could dominate. Volatility risk is real.
COURSE FIT EDGENEGATIVE BASE SGMEDIUM CONFIDENCE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 61.5%
+20.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+20.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →