Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus prediction for May 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Power, Seamus 88 - Keefer, Johnny 93. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The spread is -0.15.
Power, Seamus
+0.12
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Power, SeamusKeefer, Johnny
-105
Best Odds
+20.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Keefer, Johnny
8693100
Power, Seamus
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
15 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.8)
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
-0.14/round
Below Avg
Course Fit
good
+0.157 SG adj
Expected Finish
93th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
-0.14 SG
EF 93th
Skill Gap
-0.15 SG/round
tight edge for Power, Seamus
Power, Seamus
+0.12 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.9%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+20.9%
Keefer, Johnny vs Power, Seamus: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 61.9% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+20.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.15 SG/round. Expected finish: 93.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=380)
Despite negative skill differential (-0.151 SG/round), Keefer's course fit edge (+0.157) and superior SG profile (-0.136 total) create +20.2% probability edge; venue specialization drives the bet.
Key Factors
- Course fit: +0.157 (Keefer advantage at TPC Craig Ranch)
- Total SG: -0.136 (Keefer marginally better despite negative headline number)
- EF: 94.0 both mid-90s finishers, but model-derived matrix favors Keefer in head-to-head
- Edge: +20.2% — market severely discounts course-fit advantage
- Odds: -105 BetOnline offers value on -odds play
Risk Factors
- Skill gap narrative: -0.151 SG/round to Power could persuade public; may be correctly priced for skill-only view
- EF 94.0 means both players are mid-field; low-ceiling matchup with high variance
- Rain may help lower-skilled players by compressing variance
COURSE FITCONTRARIAN PLAY
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 61.9%
+20.9 pts
Spread
-0.1
+20.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →