Keefer, Johnny vs Smith, Jordan prediction for June 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Smith, Jordan 0 - Keefer, Johnny 92. Keefer, Johnny is favored with a 51.0% win probability. The spread is -0.32.
Smith, Jordan
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • RBC Canadian Open
Keefer, Johnny
+0.15
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Smith, JordanKeefer, Johnny
+120
Best Odds
+12.2%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
RBC Canadian Open
Course
TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley (North Course)
Field
147 players
Player Profile — Keefer, Johnny
Strokes Gained
+0.15/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
neutral
+0.098 SG adj
Expected Finish
92th / 147
Matchup Analysis
Keefer, Johnny
+0.15 SG
EF 92th
Skill Gap
-0.32 SG/round
tight edge for Smith, Jordan
Smith, Jordan
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
51.0%
Books Say
45.5%
Edge
+12.2%
Keefer, Johnny vs Smith, Jordan: Model gives Keefer, Johnny 51.0% win probability vs 45.5% implied (+12.2% edge). Skill advantage: -0.32 SG/round. Expected finish: 92.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Keefer, Johnny 51.0%
+12.2 pts
Spread
-0.3
+12.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →