Kim, Michael vs Cauley, Bud prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 103 - Kim, Michael 111. Kim, Michael is favored with a 56.3% win probability. The spread is 0.01.
Cauley, Bud
+0.52
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Kim, Michael
+0.54
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Cauley, BudKim, Michael
+105
Best Odds
+15.5%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kim, Michael
104111118
Cauley, Bud
96103110
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Kim, Michael
Strokes Gained
+0.54/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.146 SG adj
Expected Finish
111th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Kim, Michael
+0.54 SG
EF 111th
Skill Gap
+0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Cauley, Bud
+0.52 SG
EF 103th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.3%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+15.5%
Kim, Michael vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Kim, Michael 56.3% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+15.5% edge). Expected finish: 111.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kim, Michael 56.3%
+15.5 pts
Spread
+0.0
+15.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →