Kim, Si Woo vs Fitzpatrick, Matt prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Matt 34 - Kim, Si Woo 24. Kim, Si Woo is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The spread is -0.43.
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+2.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Kim, Si Woo
+1.57
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, MattKim, Si Woo
+105
Best Odds
+19.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kim, Si Woo
172431
Fitzpatrick, Matt
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Kim, Si Woo
Strokes Gained
+1.57/round
World Class
Course Fit
good
+0.225 SG adj
Expected Finish
24th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Kim, Si Woo
+1.57 SG
EF 24th
Skill Gap
-0.43 SG/round
meaningful edge for Fitzpatrick, Matt
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+2.00 SG
EF 34th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.4%
Books Say
48.8%
Edge
+19.6%
Kim, Si Woo vs Fitzpatrick, Matt: Model gives Kim, Si Woo 58.4% win probability vs 48.8% implied (+19.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.44 SG/round. Expected finish: 24.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kim, Si Woo 58.4%
+19.6 pts
Spread
-0.4
+19.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →