Kim, Si Woo vs Fowler, Rickie prediction for May 5, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fowler, Rickie 81 - Kim, Si Woo 80. Kim, Si Woo is favored with a 55.5% win probability. The spread is -0.05.
Fowler, Rickie
+1.38
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fowler, RickieKim, Si Woo
+100
Best Odds
+10.9%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kim, Si Woo
738087
Fowler, Rickie
748188
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Kim, Si Woo
Strokes Gained
+1.32/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
good
+0.176 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Kim, Si Woo
+1.32 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
-0.05 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Fowler, Rickie
+1.38 SG
EF 81th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.5%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+10.9%
Kim, Si Woo vs Fowler, Rickie: Model gives Kim, Si Woo 55.5% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+10.9% edge). Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kim, Si Woo 55.5%
+10.9 pts
Spread
-0.1
+10.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →