Kitayama, Kurt vs Lee, Min Woo prediction for June 17, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Lee, Min Woo 35 - Kitayama, Kurt 80. Kitayama, Kurt is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The spread is 0.07.
Lee, Min Woo
+1.01
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Kitayama, Kurt
+1.19
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Lee, Min WooKitayama, Kurt
-103
Best Odds
+7.5%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kitayama, Kurt
738087
Lee, Min Woo
283542
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Kitayama, Kurt
Strokes Gained
+1.19/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.123 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Kitayama, Kurt
+1.19 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
+0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Lee, Min Woo
+1.01 SG
EF 35th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.6%
Books Say
50.7%
Edge
+7.5%
Kitayama, Kurt vs Lee, Min Woo: Model gives Kitayama, Kurt 54.6% win probability vs 50.7% implied (+7.5% edge). Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kitayama, Kurt 54.6%
+7.5 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →