Kitayama, Kurt vs Rai, Aaron prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Rai, Aaron 32 - Kitayama, Kurt 80. Kitayama, Kurt is favored with a 57.1% win probability. The spread is 0.23.
Rai, Aaron
+1.07
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Kitayama, Kurt
+1.19
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Rai, AaronKitayama, Kurt
-115
Best Odds
+6.8%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Kitayama, Kurt
738087
Rai, Aaron
253239
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Kitayama, Kurt
Strokes Gained
+1.19/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.123 SG adj
Expected Finish
80th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Kitayama, Kurt
+1.19 SG
EF 80th
Skill Gap
+0.23 SG/round
tight edge for Kitayama, Kurt
Rai, Aaron
+1.07 SG
EF 32th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.1%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+6.8%
Kitayama, Kurt vs Rai, Aaron: Model gives Kitayama, Kurt 57.1% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+6.8% edge). Skill advantage: +0.23 SG/round. Expected finish: 80.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Kitayama, Kurt 57.1%
+6.8 pts
Spread
+0.2
+6.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →