Koepka, Brooks vs Hatton, Tyrrell prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hatton, Tyrrell 100 - Koepka, Brooks 82. Koepka, Brooks is favored with a 61.9% win probability. The spread is -0.38.
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hatton, TyrrellKoepka, Brooks
-125
Best Odds
+11.4%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Koepka, Brooks
758289
Hatton, Tyrrell
93100107
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Koepka, Brooks
Strokes Gained
+0.48/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.946 SG adj
Expected Finish
82th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48 SG
EF 82th
Skill Gap
-0.38 SG/round
tight edge for Hatton, Tyrrell
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86 SG
EF 100th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
61.9%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+11.4%
Koepka, Brooks vs Hatton, Tyrrell: Model gives Koepka, Brooks 61.9% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+11.4% edge). Skill advantage: -0.38 SG/round. Expected finish: 82.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Koepka, Brooks 61.9%
+11.4 pts
Spread
-0.4
+11.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →