Koepka, Brooks vs Hatton, Tyrrell prediction for May 12, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hatton, Tyrrell 99 - Koepka, Brooks 83. Koepka, Brooks is favored with a 62.2% win probability. The spread is -0.38.
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hatton, TyrrellKoepka, Brooks
-125
Best Odds
+11.9%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Koepka, Brooks
768390
Hatton, Tyrrell
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Koepka, Brooks
Strokes Gained
+0.48/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.946 SG adj
Expected Finish
83th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Koepka, Brooks
+0.48 SG
EF 83th
Skill Gap
-0.38 SG/round
tight edge for Hatton, Tyrrell
Hatton, Tyrrell
+0.86 SG
EF 99th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.2%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+11.9%
Koepka, Brooks vs Hatton, Tyrrell: Model gives Koepka, Brooks 62.2% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+11.9% edge). Skill advantage: -0.38 SG/round. Expected finish: 83.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Koepka, Brooks 62.2%
+11.9 pts
Spread
-0.4
+11.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →