PGA Tour Golf

Lee, Min Woo vs Cauley, Bud Prediction

June 18, 2026

10,000 Monte Carlo simulations

Lee, Min Woo vs Cauley, Bud prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Cauley, Bud 35 - Lee, Min Woo 76. Lee, Min Woo is favored with a 59.7% win probability. The spread is 0.11.

Cauley, Bud
+0.93
Strokes Gained / Round
VS H2H • U.S. Open
Lee, Min Woo
+1.12
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
40.3%
59.7%
Cauley, BudLee, Min Woo
-125
Best Odds
+7.4%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
FINALCauley, Bud (T53) def Lee, Min Woo (T101)

Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile

Lee, Min Woo
697683
Cauley, Bud
283542

Tournament Context

Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players

Player Profile — Lee, Min Woo

Strokes Gained
+1.12/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.305 SG adj
Expected Finish
76th / 156

Matchup Analysis

Lee, Min Woo
+1.12 SG
EF 76th
Skill Gap
+0.11 SG/round
tight edge for Lee, Min Woo
Cauley, Bud
+0.93 SG
EF 35th · Above Avg

Edge Breakdown

Our Model
59.7%
Books Say
55.6%
Edge
+7.4%

Lee, Min Woo vs Cauley, Bud: Model gives Lee, Min Woo 59.7% win probability vs 55.6% implied (+7.4% edge). Skill advantage: +0.11 SG/round. Expected finish: 76.

Edge Analysis

Moneyline
Lee, Min Woo 59.7%
+7.4 pts
Spread
+0.1
+7.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

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