Lowry, Shane vs Matsuyama, Hideki prediction for June 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Matsuyama, Hideki 41 - Lowry, Shane 81. Lowry, Shane is favored with a 57.9% win probability. The spread is 0.12.
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • U.S. Open
Lowry, Shane
+1.18
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Matsuyama, HidekiLowry, Shane
-111
Best Odds
+10.0%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lowry, Shane
748188
Matsuyama, Hideki
344148
Tournament Context
Event
U.S. Open
Course
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Lowry, Shane
Strokes Gained
+1.18/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.082 SG adj
Expected Finish
81th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Lowry, Shane
+1.18 SG
EF 81th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for Lowry, Shane
Matsuyama, Hideki
+0.90 SG
EF 41th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
57.9%
Books Say
52.6%
Edge
+10.0%
Lowry, Shane vs Matsuyama, Hideki: Model gives Lowry, Shane 57.9% win probability vs 52.6% implied (+10.0% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 81.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lowry, Shane 57.9%
+10.0 pts
Spread
+0.1
+10.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →