Lowry, Shane vs Straka, Sepp prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Straka, Sepp 97 - Lowry, Shane 54. Lowry, Shane is favored with a 59.0% win probability. The spread is 0.16.
Straka, Sepp
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
Lowry, Shane
+1.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Straka, SeppLowry, Shane
-110
Best Odds
+12.6%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Lowry, Shane
475461
Straka, Sepp
9097104
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — Lowry, Shane
Strokes Gained
+1.10/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+1.270 SG adj
Expected Finish
54th / 156
Matchup Analysis
Lowry, Shane
+1.10 SG
EF 54th
Skill Gap
+0.16 SG/round
tight edge for Lowry, Shane
Straka, Sepp
+0.94 SG
EF 97th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.0%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+12.6%
Lowry, Shane vs Straka, Sepp: Model gives Lowry, Shane 59.0% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+12.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.16 SG/round. Expected finish: 54.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Lowry, Shane 59.0%
+12.6 pts
Spread
+0.2
+12.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →