MacIntyre, Robert vs Burns, Sam prediction for May 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Burns, Sam 83 - MacIntyre, Robert 63. MacIntyre, Robert is favored with a 59.9% win probability. The spread is -0.01.
Burns, Sam
+1.30
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Burns, SamMacIntyre, Robert
-107
Best Odds
+15.9%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MacIntyre, Robert
566370
Burns, Sam
768390
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — MacIntyre, Robert
Strokes Gained
+1.29/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.751 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 156
Matchup Analysis
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
-0.01 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Burns, Sam
+1.30 SG
EF 83th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.9%
Books Say
51.7%
Edge
+15.9%
MacIntyre, Robert vs Burns, Sam: Model gives MacIntyre, Robert 59.9% win probability vs 51.7% implied (+15.9% edge). Expected finish: 63.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MacIntyre, Robert 59.9%
+15.9 pts
Spread
-0.0
+15.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →