MacIntyre, Robert vs Henley, Russell prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Henley, Russell 69 - MacIntyre, Robert 63. MacIntyre, Robert is favored with a 55.4% win probability. The spread is -0.36.
Henley, Russell
+1.62
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Henley, RussellMacIntyre, Robert
-106
Best Odds
+7.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MacIntyre, Robert
566370
Henley, Russell
626976
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — MacIntyre, Robert
Strokes Gained
+1.29/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.751 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 156
Matchup Analysis
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
-0.36 SG/round
tight edge for Henley, Russell
Henley, Russell
+1.62 SG
EF 69th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
55.4%
Books Say
51.5%
Edge
+7.6%
MacIntyre, Robert vs Henley, Russell: Model gives MacIntyre, Robert 55.4% win probability vs 51.5% implied (+7.6% edge). Skill advantage: -0.36 SG/round. Expected finish: 63.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MacIntyre, Robert 55.4%
+7.6 pts
Spread
-0.4
+7.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →