MacIntyre, Robert vs Scott, Adam prediction for May 15, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 79 - MacIntyre, Robert 63. MacIntyre, Robert is favored with a 58.8% win probability. The spread is 0.04.
Scott, Adam
+1.24
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamMacIntyre, Robert
-114
Best Odds
+10.3%
Edge
1.0u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MacIntyre, Robert
566370
Scott, Adam
727986
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — MacIntyre, Robert
Strokes Gained
+1.29/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.751 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 156
Matchup Analysis
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
+0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Scott, Adam
+1.24 SG
EF 79th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.8%
Books Say
53.3%
Edge
+10.3%
MacIntyre, Robert vs Scott, Adam: Model gives MacIntyre, Robert 58.7% win probability vs 53.3% implied (+10.3% edge). Expected finish: 63.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MacIntyre, Robert 58.8%
+10.3 pts
Spread
+0.0
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →