MacIntyre, Robert vs Spaun, J.J. prediction for May 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Spaun, J.J. 80 - MacIntyre, Robert 63. MacIntyre, Robert is favored with a 58.7% win probability. The spread is -0.04.
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Spaun, J.J.MacIntyre, Robert
+100
Best Odds
+17.5%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
MacIntyre, Robert
566370
Spaun, J.J.
738087
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — MacIntyre, Robert
Strokes Gained
+1.29/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+0.751 SG adj
Expected Finish
63th / 156
Matchup Analysis
MacIntyre, Robert
+1.29 SG
EF 63th
Skill Gap
-0.04 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Spaun, J.J.
+1.31 SG
EF 80th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.7%
Books Say
50.0%
Edge
+17.5%
MacIntyre, Robert vs Spaun, J.J.: Model gives MacIntyre, Robert 58.7% win probability vs 50.0% implied (+17.5% edge). Expected finish: 63.
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1GREEN ZONE0.6% WR (n=284)
MacIntyre's +1.405 course fit combined with superior skill creates +17.5% edge; course fit-driven dominant matchup.
Key Factors
- Course fit gap: +1.285 SG (MacIntyre +1.405 vs Spaun +0.12) = dominant differential
- Finish position: MacIntyre EF 43.8 vs Spaun EF 81.9 = 38-position gap
- Skill parity: Both ~+1.3 SG, so edge is PURE COURSE FIT
- Edge: +17.5% (65.3% model vs 55.6% implied) = solid value
Risk Factors
- Skill levels are very close; single-event variance could favor Spaun
- Spaun's consistency (high SG) might close fit disadvantage
- If course setup changes to favor different shot patterns, fit advantage erodes
LINE VALUECOURSE FIT DOMINANTFINISHES GAP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MacIntyre, Robert 58.7%
+17.5 pts
Spread
-0.0
+17.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →