Matsuyama, Hideki vs Hojgaard, Nicolai prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hojgaard, Nicolai 39 - Matsuyama, Hideki 35. Matsuyama, Hideki is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The spread is 0.36.
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hojgaard, NicolaiMatsuyama, Hideki
-119
Best Odds
+7.3%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Matsuyama, Hideki
283542
Hojgaard, Nicolai
323946
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
12 mph
Temp
77°F
Conditions
harder (+0.6)
Player Profile — Matsuyama, Hideki
Strokes Gained
+1.41/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.037 SG adj
Expected Finish
35th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41 SG
EF 35th
Skill Gap
+0.36 SG/round
tight edge for Matsuyama, Hideki
Hojgaard, Nicolai
+1.03 SG
EF 39th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
58.3%
Books Say
54.3%
Edge
+7.3%
Matsuyama, Hideki vs Hojgaard, Nicolai: Model gives Matsuyama, Hideki 58.3% win probability vs 54.3% implied (+7.3% edge). Skill advantage: +0.36 SG/round. Expected finish: 35.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Matsuyama, Hideki 58.3%
+7.3 pts
Spread
+0.4
+7.3 pts
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →