Matsuyama, Hideki vs Scott, Adam prediction for May 1, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Scott, Adam 34 - Matsuyama, Hideki 29. Matsuyama, Hideki is favored with a 54.6% win probability. The spread is 0.13.
Scott, Adam
+1.26
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Scott, AdamMatsuyama, Hideki
-105
Best Odds
+6.6%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
Matsuyama, Hideki
222936
Scott, Adam
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — Matsuyama, Hideki
Strokes Gained
+1.41/round
Tour Elite
Course Fit
neutral
+0.037 SG adj
Expected Finish
29th / 72
Matchup Analysis
Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.41 SG
EF 29th
Skill Gap
+0.13 SG/round
tight edge for Matsuyama, Hideki
Scott, Adam
+1.26 SG
EF 34th · Tour Elite
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
54.6%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+6.6%
Matsuyama, Hideki vs Scott, Adam: Model gives Matsuyama, Hideki 54.6% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+6.6% edge). Skill advantage: +0.13 SG/round. Expected finish: 29.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
Matsuyama, Hideki 54.6%
+6.6 pts
Spread
+0.1
+6.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →