McCarty, Matt vs Hoey, Rico prediction for May 28, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Hoey, Rico 0 - McCarty, Matt 71. McCarty, Matt is favored with a 62.2% win probability. The spread is 0.47.
Hoey, Rico
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
McCarty, Matt
+0.74
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Hoey, RicoMcCarty, Matt
-126
Best Odds
+11.5%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
91°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — McCarty, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.74/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.105 SG adj
Expected Finish
71th / 132
Matchup Analysis
McCarty, Matt
+0.74 SG
EF 71th
Skill Gap
+0.47 SG/round
meaningful edge for McCarty, Matt
Hoey, Rico
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
62.2%
Books Say
55.8%
Edge
+11.5%
McCarty, Matt vs Hoey, Rico: Model gives McCarty, Matt 62.2% win probability vs 55.8% implied (+11.5% edge). Skill advantage: +0.47 SG/round. Expected finish: 71.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McCarty, Matt 62.2%
+11.5 pts
Spread
+0.5
+11.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →