McCarty, Matt vs Taylor, Nick prediction for May 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Taylor, Nick 99 - McCarty, Matt 98. McCarty, Matt is favored with a 59.8% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Taylor, Nick
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
McCarty, Matt
+0.92
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Taylor, NickMcCarty, Matt
-110
Best Odds
+14.2%
Edge
1.5u HIGH
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McCarty, Matt
9198105
Taylor, Nick
9299106
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — McCarty, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.92/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.066 SG adj
Expected Finish
98th / 156
Matchup Analysis
McCarty, Matt
+0.92 SG
EF 98th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Taylor, Nick
+0.94 SG
EF 99th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.8%
Books Say
52.4%
Edge
+14.2%
McCarty, Matt vs Taylor, Nick: Model gives McCarty, Matt 59.8% win probability vs 52.4% implied (+14.2% edge). Expected finish: 98.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McCarty, Matt 59.8%
+14.2 pts
Spread
-0.0
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →