McCarty, Matt vs Taylor, Nick prediction for May 9, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Taylor, Nick 100 - McCarty, Matt 100. McCarty, Matt is favored with a 59.5% win probability. The spread is -0.02.
Taylor, Nick
+0.94
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • PGA Championship
McCarty, Matt
+0.92
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Taylor, NickMcCarty, Matt
-120
Best Odds
+9.1%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McCarty, Matt
93100107
Taylor, Nick
93100107
Tournament Context
Event
PGA Championship
Course
Aronimink Golf Club
Field
156 players
Player Profile — McCarty, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.92/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.066 SG adj
Expected Finish
100th / 156
Matchup Analysis
McCarty, Matt
+0.92 SG
EF 100th
Skill Gap
-0.02 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Taylor, Nick
+0.94 SG
EF 100th · Above Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
59.5%
Books Say
54.5%
Edge
+9.1%
McCarty, Matt vs Taylor, Nick: Model gives McCarty, Matt 59.5% win probability vs 54.5% implied (+9.1% edge). Expected finish: 100.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McCarty, Matt 59.5%
+9.1 pts
Spread
-0.0
+9.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →