McCarty, Matt vs Thompson, Davis prediction for May 27, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Thompson, Davis 0 - McCarty, Matt 70. McCarty, Matt is favored with a 56.8% win probability. The spread is 0.32.
Thompson, Davis
+0.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Charles Schwab Challenge
McCarty, Matt
+0.74
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Thompson, DavisMcCarty, Matt
-105
Best Odds
+7.9%
Edge
1.0u MEDIUM
Sizing
Tournament Context
Event
Charles Schwab Challenge
Course
Colonial CC
Field
132 players
Wind
10 mph
Temp
86°F
Conditions
harder (+0.4)
Player Profile — McCarty, Matt
Strokes Gained
+0.74/round
Above Avg
Course Fit
poor
-0.105 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 132
Matchup Analysis
McCarty, Matt
+0.74 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
+0.32 SG/round
tight edge for McCarty, Matt
Thompson, Davis
+0.00 SG
EF 0th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
56.8%
Books Say
51.2%
Edge
+7.9%
McCarty, Matt vs Thompson, Davis: Model gives McCarty, Matt 56.8% win probability vs 51.2% implied (+10.9% edge). Skill advantage: +0.32 SG/round. Expected finish: 70. AI: poor recent form; poor course history.
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
McCarty's solid SG (0.745) + skill advantage (+0.321 SG vs Thompson) overcome negative fit (−0.105) to yield 11.6% edge; similar to MCCARTY_HOEY but tighter odds.
Key Factors
- Model: 57.2% vs 51.2% implied (+11.6% edge)
- McCarty SG: +0.745 (solid)
- Skill advantage: +0.321 (significant)
- Course fit: −0.105 (negative)
Risk Factors
- Negative fit (−0.105) is headwind
- Thompson's comp data limited (depth player)
- Narrower edge (11.6%) vs Hoey matchup
SKILL DRIVEN
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McCarty, Matt 56.8%
+7.9 pts
Spread
+0.3
+7.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →