McGreevy, Max vs Kirk, Chris prediction for May 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Kirk, Chris 88 - McGreevy, Max 70. McGreevy, Max is favored with a 63.2% win probability. The spread is -0.07.
Kirk, Chris
+0.39
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
McGreevy, Max
+0.32
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Kirk, ChrisMcGreevy, Max
-115
Best Odds
+18.2%
Edge
1.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McGreevy, Max
637077
Kirk, Chris
818895
Tournament Context
Event
THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
Course
TPC Craig Ranch
Field
147 players
Wind
14 mph
Temp
82°F
Conditions
harder (+0.7)
Player Profile — McGreevy, Max
Strokes Gained
+0.32/round
Tour Avg
Course Fit
excellent
+0.530 SG adj
Expected Finish
70th / 147
Matchup Analysis
McGreevy, Max
+0.32 SG
EF 70th
Skill Gap
-0.07 SG/round
essentially a coin flip
Kirk, Chris
+0.39 SG
EF 88th · Tour Avg
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
63.2%
Books Say
53.5%
Edge
+18.2%
McGreevy, Max vs Kirk, Chris: Model gives McGreevy, Max 63.2% win probability vs 53.5% implied (+18.2% edge). Expected finish: 70.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McGreevy, Max 63.2%
+18.2 pts
Spread
-0.1
+18.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →