McIlroy, Rory vs Fitzpatrick, Matt prediction for May 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fitzpatrick, Matt 34 - McIlroy, Rory 3. McIlroy, Rory is favored with a 83.6% win probability. The spread is 0.12.
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+2.00
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fitzpatrick, MattMcIlroy, Rory
-205
Best Odds
+24.4%
Edge
2.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McIlroy, Rory
0310
Fitzpatrick, Matt
273441
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — McIlroy, Rory
Strokes Gained
+2.10/round
Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+2.541 SG adj
Expected Finish
3th / 72
Matchup Analysis
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10 SG
EF 3th
Skill Gap
+0.12 SG/round
tight edge for McIlroy, Rory
Fitzpatrick, Matt
+2.00 SG
EF 34th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
83.6%
Books Say
67.2%
Edge
+24.4%
McIlroy, Rory vs Fitzpatrick, Matt: Model gives McIlroy, Rory 83.6% win probability vs 67.2% implied (+24.4% edge). Skill advantage: +0.12 SG/round. Expected finish: 3.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McIlroy, Rory 83.6%
+24.4 pts
Spread
+0.1
+24.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →