McIlroy, Rory vs Fleetwood, Tommy prediction for May 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects Fleetwood, Tommy 25 - McIlroy, Rory 3. McIlroy, Rory is favored with a 83.5% win probability. The spread is 0.54.
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.58
Strokes Gained / Round
VS
H2H • Truist Championship
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10
Strokes Gained / Round
Head-to-Head Win Probability
Fleetwood, TommyMcIlroy, Rory
-225
Best Odds
+20.7%
Edge
2.5u ELITE
Sizing
Projected Points Range 10th – 90th percentile
McIlroy, Rory
0310
Fleetwood, Tommy
182532
Tournament Context
Event
Truist Championship
Course
Quail Hollow Club
Field
72 players
Wind
11 mph
Temp
76°F
Conditions
harder (+0.5)
Player Profile — McIlroy, Rory
Strokes Gained
+2.10/round
Elite
Course Fit
excellent
+2.541 SG adj
Expected Finish
3th / 72
Matchup Analysis
McIlroy, Rory
+2.10 SG
EF 3th
Skill Gap
+0.54 SG/round
meaningful edge for McIlroy, Rory
Fleetwood, Tommy
+1.58 SG
EF 25th · World Class
Edge Breakdown
Our Model
83.5%
Books Say
69.2%
Edge
+20.7%
McIlroy, Rory vs Fleetwood, Tommy: Model gives McIlroy, Rory 83.5% win probability vs 69.2% implied (+20.7% edge). Skill advantage: +0.54 SG/round. Expected finish: 3.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
McIlroy, Rory 83.5%
+20.7 pts
Spread
+0.5
+20.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets PGA Tour Golf Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →